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Tuesday, July 25, 2006
By David M. Drucker
Roll Call Staff
A photo finish is expected today in Oklahoma's 5th district Republican primary, with Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin predicted to advance to an Aug. 22 runoff against either state Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode or Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.
With temperatures expected in the high 90s before the heat index is accounted for, turnout could be the key to victory in the crowded six-candidate field to replace Rep. Ernest Istook (R). Istook is projected to finish first in the GOP gubernatorial primary, and he will compete in a runoff unless he garners at least 50 percent of the vote today.
"I'll be surprised if Mary Fallin is not the frontrunner," a knowledgeable Oklahoma Republican said Monday. "And I think it's real razor-thin between Denise Bode and Mick Cornett" for second place.
Surgeon David Hunter and teacher Bert Smith are running for their party's nod in the 5th district Democratic primary. But the heavily Republican, Oklahoma City-area seat is considered safe for the GOP and unlikely to flip come November.
The leading Republican candidates - including the Club for Growth-favored state Rep. Kevin Calvey - are all claiming a best-in-show ground game. Bode spokesman Ron Black said his candidate's team has knocked on more than 60,000 doors, while Cornett campaign spokesman Sean McCaffrey boasted a volunteer squad of well over 100.
Fallin campaign spokeswoman Denise Northrup said the lieutenant governor's operation placed 25,000 automated phone calls on Monday.
The state election board is projecting statewide turnout among registered voters in the low 30 percent range, which is considered average for an off-year election. That, combined with a Republican candidate field that has angled en masse for the conservative vote, and an electorate in which few voters are undecided at this point, could make turnout crucial.
For instance, if the hot weather depresses turnout among senior citizens, who benefits and who suffers? One Republican operative said seniors are among Fallin's most ardent supporters and suggested she could be damaged if the forecasted 97-degree weather deters older voters from venturing to the polls.
"I think it will be close and competitive. We're feeling very confident over here," McCaffrey said. "We have an amazing team of folks working hard to get out the vote."
Of the three leading campaigns, the Bode and Cornett teams on Monday seemed to share the same feelings of confidence mixed with cautious optimism. Even Black, when asked to gauge his candidate's chances, backed away from predictions he made almost two weeks ago that Bode was gunning for a top finish in today's election, saying only that he fully expects her to advance to the runoff.
Fallin, however, is notably buoyant.
Northrup said all of the polling they have seen - including their own conducted by Oklahoma native Ed Goas - shows them leading the pack and making the runoff. She attributed Fallin's strong position to running a positive campaign and staying above the fray that has engulfed some of the candidates.
"We feel really good. We have the momentum," Northrup said. "I think both [Bode and Cornett] are in a statistical dead heat, from numbers we've seen, and we're just waiting to see who's in the runoff with us."
In the closing days, what has been a relatively civil campaign turned slightly heated, with Bode targeting Cornett's position on eminent domain in a radio ad and the mayor snapping back in a television interview, accusing the corporation commissioner of breaking her pledge not to go negative.
In a comical exchange caught by a local television news crew at an event where Cornett and Bode were both appearing, the candidates shook hands, smiled at each other and looked as if they were in the middle of a friendly conversation, while in reality they were sparring verbally about the ad.
Cornett said the ad distorts his position on eminent domain. Black said the ad was not a negative attack, but merely an attempt to showcase the substantive differences that exist between the candidates.
"Here in the Oklahoma media, there has been this mantra that there's no distinguishing characteristics among the candidates," Black said.
Calvey, considered the only candidate who can sneak into the top two and displace either Bode or Cornett, has benefited from the Club for Growth spending on his behalf. As of July 12, the political action committee reported spending more than $55,000 on Calvey.
Calvey appears to have hung his chances on the issue of illegal immigration. His main television ad - and the only one he has run in the final weeks of the campaign - features Chris Simcox, president of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, the group that has placed sentries along the U.S. border. In the ad, Simcox endorses Calvey and praises his tough, anti-illegal immigration stance.
Calvey also has been endorsed by Team America PAC, the political action committee founded by Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) for the sole purpose of funding candidates who share his position on illegal immigration.
Calvey campaign spokeswoman Carissa Darling said 5th district voters are concerned about illegal immigration, adding that her candidate's military background makes him uniquely qualified to address the issue.
Northrup predicted an above-average turnout in the 5th district that would surpass the statewide showing, based on voter intensity motivated by a competitive Republican primary and a gubernatorial primary on the GOP side that features Istook, the area's longtime and well-liked Congressman.
She acknowledged that the hot weather could affect turnout among seniors, who are generally big Fallin supporters. But she said many have voted early over the past few days, with plans in place to drive others to the polls today as needed.
"I think you'll find turnout affects who the other person in runoff will be" besides Fallin, Northrup said.
Posted at 7/25/2006 12:07:00 PM  
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